IRAN NUKED UP OR NOT
December 9th 2007 05:22
MEDIA WRESTLES WITH US INTELLIGENCE REPORT THAT IRAN FROZE ITS NUCLEAR WEAPON PROGRAM IN 2003
The US government's latest National Intelligence Estimate conclusion that Iran froze its active efforts to manufacture nuclear weapons in 2003, and will not have such a capability until at least 2012, has certainly stirred up a media hornet’s nest internationally.
Left-oriented media has been quick to use this news to revisit the US intelligence bumbling over Iraq’s supposed weapons of mass destruction, a western intelligence fiasco devastatingly documented in Bob Drogin’s brilliant book, Curveball.
More conservative media is however taking a more cautious line and examining the fine print of the National Intelligence Estimate’s announcement.
The Jerusalem Issue Brief, published by the Institute for Contemporary Affairs founded jointly at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs with the Wechsler Family Foundation, states, “Clearly, the National Intelligence Estimate conclusions now appearing in the press are not the end of the story.”
It said, “While the National Intelligence Estimate states that the US intelligence community has ‘high confidence’ that the Iranians halted their nuclear weapons program in 2003, it also states that it has only ‘moderate confidence’ that Tehran has not restarted the program…
“To its credit, the National Intelligence Estimate report admits the limitations of the US intelligence community with respect to its ability to determine that the 2003 halt in the Iranian weapons program is permanent: ‘We do not have sufficient intelligence to judge whether Tehran is willing to maintain the halt of its nuclear weapons program indefinitely.’”
The extremely authoritative and scrupulously objective Power and Interest News Report said that while the National Intelligence Estimate confirmed its own 2003 analyses that Iran was likely seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, it said the report, “however, also provided information that somewhat contrasted with PINR's 2003 analyses” that it had “assessed that the US interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan would hasten Iran's attempts to acquire nuclear weapons.”
Power And Interest News report said, “Instead, if the intelligence of the National Intelligence Estimate is correct, it demonstrates that Iran halted its program in 2003, likely because it perceived a US attack highly probable and did not want to provide Washington with evidence of a nuclear weapon gambit.
“Furthermore, in 2003 and early 2004, the situation in Iraq was still relatively stable, and Tehran probably perceived a US attack on its nuclear facilities or government a possibility.”
Power And Interest News concluded that that Iran has not shelved its goal of acquiring nuclear weapons, and may be waiting to see what happens in Iraq and Afghanistan before deciding whether to continue its program.
From MediaBlab which notes: The Power and Interest News Report is an independent organisation that uses open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. It claims that it “approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader.”
The US government's latest National Intelligence Estimate conclusion that Iran froze its active efforts to manufacture nuclear weapons in 2003, and will not have such a capability until at least 2012, has certainly stirred up a media hornet’s nest internationally.
Left-oriented media has been quick to use this news to revisit the US intelligence bumbling over Iraq’s supposed weapons of mass destruction, a western intelligence fiasco devastatingly documented in Bob Drogin’s brilliant book, Curveball.
The Jerusalem Issue Brief, published by the Institute for Contemporary Affairs founded jointly at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs with the Wechsler Family Foundation, states, “Clearly, the National Intelligence Estimate conclusions now appearing in the press are not the end of the story.”
It said, “While the National Intelligence Estimate states that the US intelligence community has ‘high confidence’ that the Iranians halted their nuclear weapons program in 2003, it also states that it has only ‘moderate confidence’ that Tehran has not restarted the program…
“To its credit, the National Intelligence Estimate report admits the limitations of the US intelligence community with respect to its ability to determine that the 2003 halt in the Iranian weapons program is permanent: ‘We do not have sufficient intelligence to judge whether Tehran is willing to maintain the halt of its nuclear weapons program indefinitely.’”
The extremely authoritative and scrupulously objective Power and Interest News Report said that while the National Intelligence Estimate confirmed its own 2003 analyses that Iran was likely seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, it said the report, “however, also provided information that somewhat contrasted with PINR's 2003 analyses” that it had “assessed that the US interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan would hasten Iran's attempts to acquire nuclear weapons.”
“Furthermore, in 2003 and early 2004, the situation in Iraq was still relatively stable, and Tehran probably perceived a US attack on its nuclear facilities or government a possibility.”
Power And Interest News concluded that that Iran has not shelved its goal of acquiring nuclear weapons, and may be waiting to see what happens in Iraq and Afghanistan before deciding whether to continue its program.
From MediaBlab which notes: The Power and Interest News Report is an independent organisation that uses open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. It claims that it “approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader.”
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